Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 1.227778 1.288649 1.351464 1.421256 1.496789 1.576238 1.666346
2025-11-16 1.122235 1.207270 1.298474 1.404058 1.523547 1.655319 1.812660
2025-11-23 1.062855 1.162375 1.271936 1.402432 1.554877 1.728906 1.944919
2025-11-30 1.023202 1.134096 1.258820 1.410948 1.593535 1.808342 2.084364
2025-12-07 0.977234 1.094524 1.228679 1.395442 1.600031 1.846776 2.173237
2025-12-14 0.932652 1.053576 1.193819 1.370929 1.592275 1.864986 2.235138
2025-12-21 0.898566 1.023057 1.169290 1.356698 1.595032 1.894703 2.311651
2025-12-28 0.881034 1.011286 1.166333 1.368136 1.629589 1.965633 2.446098
2026-01-04 0.859408 0.993339 1.154597 1.367318 1.647441 2.014583 2.552602
2026-01-11 0.846063 0.984844 1.153901 1.380014 1.682868 2.088069 2.697771
2026-01-18 0.827228 0.968635 1.142588 1.377996 1.697921 2.133692 2.804875
2026-01-25 0.806718 0.949514 1.126692 1.368964 1.702511 2.164224 2.890699
2026-02-01 0.782070 0.924839 1.103378 1.349845 1.693262 2.175858 2.950702
2026-02-08 0.759487 0.902168 1.081941 1.332395 1.685454 2.188981 3.013821
2026-02-15 0.744889 0.889283 1.072754 1.331023 1.699964 2.235168 3.132708
2026-02-22 0.734848 0.881935 1.070496 1.338866 1.727722 2.302307 3.291080
2026-03-01 0.716887 0.863632 1.052958 1.324566 1.722208 2.317790 3.362629
2026-03-08 0.696716 0.841882 1.030134 1.301944 1.703246 2.311031 3.394458
2026-03-15 0.681047 0.825720 1.014405 1.288802 1.697773 2.325009 3.463736
2026-03-22 0.674763 0.821891 1.015295 1.299365 1.728380 2.398129 3.646254
2026-03-29 0.664785 0.812798 1.008621 1.298610 1.741387 2.442969 3.779858
2026-04-05 0.659592 0.810009 1.010520 1.310330 1.774095 2.522154 3.986822
2026-04-12 0.650035 0.801014 1.003462 1.308468 1.785145 2.565058 4.126086